Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Poland win on 2026-11-14?
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 49¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 60%
$5.5K
$35.15
47.1¢ → 48.5¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Mature
38h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 47.2¢ | $2.7K | $2.8K | +$76.46 | 50% 3193-3131 (6324) |
 boyau | Yesavg 53¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$40 | 38% 126-210 (336) |
GA GamblingOdyssey | Yesavg 53¢ | $320.39 | $314.35 | -$6.05 | 35% 11-20 (31) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 53¢ | $114.78 | $112.61 | -$2.17 | 61% 1003-631 (1634) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $63.48 | $66.24 | +$2.76 | 56% 307-245 (552) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $53.11 | $54.24 | +$1.13 | 49% 1668-1706 (3374) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 46.9¢ | $57.02 | $49.4 | +$1.73 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $27.03 | $28.21 | +$1.18 | 59% 3648-2489 (6137) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $17.28 | $17.19 | -$0.1 | 30% 77-180 (257) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 46.4¢ | $5.86 | $6.06 | +$0.2 | 43% 808-1065 (1873) |
Invested
$2,681.09
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$76.46
Record
50%
3193-3131 (6324)
boyauInvested
$2,119.98
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$40
Record
38%
126-210 (336)
Invested
$320.39
Value
$314.35
PnL
-$6.05
Record
35%
11-20 (31)
Invested
$114.78
Value
$112.61
PnL
-$2.17
Record
61%
1003-631 (1634)
Invested
$63.48
Value
$66.24
PnL
+$2.76
Record
56%
307-245 (552)
Invested
$53.11
Value
$54.24
PnL
+$1.13
Record
49%
1668-1706 (3374)
Invested
$57.02
Value
$49.4
PnL
+$1.73
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$28.21
PnL
+$1.18
Record
59%
3648-2489 (6137)
Invested
$17.28
Value
$17.19
PnL
-$0.1
Record
30%
77-180 (257)
Invested
$5.86
Value
$6.06
PnL
+$0.2
Record
43%
808-1065 (1873)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.