Romania vs. Poland: 1st Half O/U 1.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 97¢ · $884 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 67%
$884.45
$5.85
63.4¢ → 97¢
+53% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO lonmi2511 | Underavg 60¢ | $342.42 | $353.72 | +$11.3 | 59% 717-491 (1208) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 73.1¢ | $222.44 | $218.99 | -$3.45 | 49% 3969-4117 (8086) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Underavg 61¢ | $120.86 | $122.76 | +$1.9 | 55% 502-403 (905) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 60.3¢ | $273 | $97.67 | +$56.54 | 48% 3239-3552 (6791) |
 nigiri99CTR | Overavg 38¢ | $109.82 | $49.13 | -$60.69 | 51% 568-535 (1103) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $28.94 | $29.45 | +$0.51 | 53% 1815-1613 (3428) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $8.68 | $8.68 | +$0 | 48% 2164-2307 (4471) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $3.36 | $3.04 | -$0.32 | 37% 1063-1799 (2862) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 16¢ | $0.95 | $1.01 | +$0.06 | 55% 5404-4376 (9780) |
Invested
$342.42
Value
$353.72
PnL
+$11.3
Record
59%
717-491 (1208)
Invested
$222.44
Value
$218.99
PnL
-$3.45
Record
49%
3969-4117 (8086)
Invested
$120.86
Value
$122.76
PnL
+$1.9
Record
55%
502-403 (905)
Invested
$273
Value
$97.67
PnL
+$56.54
Record
48%
3239-3552 (6791)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$109.82
Value
$49.13
PnL
-$60.69
Record
51%
568-535 (1103)
Invested
$28.94
Value
$29.45
PnL
+$0.51
Record
53%
1815-1613 (3428)
Invested
$8.68
Value
$8.68
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2164-2307 (4471)
Invested
$3.36
Value
$3.04
PnL
-$0.32
Record
37%
1063-1799 (2862)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.95
Value
$1.01
PnL
+$0.06
Record
55%
5404-4376 (9780)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.