Romania vs. Poland: Both Teams to Score
5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 53¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
11
Yes 45%
$1.5K
$16.8
55.2¢ → 52.5¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Yesavg 55.5¢ | $910.39 | $901.99 | -$8.4 | 54% 503-422 (925) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Noavg 44¢ | $357.14 | $377.43 | +$20.29 | 38% 1014-1686 (2700) |
 RN1 | Yesavg 53¢ | $106 | $109 | +$3 | 55% 5402-4371 (9773) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $35.68 | $35.36 | -$0.32 | 48% 3239-3552 (6791) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 43.3¢ | $18.64 | $19.78 | +$1.14 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 42.8¢ | $18.35 | $18.65 | +$0.3 | 53% 1811-1610 (3421) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $15.3 | $15.65 | +$0.35 | 55% 499-401 (900) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $12.27 | $12.41 | +$0.14 | 47% 936-1036 (1972) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 43.3¢ | $6.59 | $7.3 | +$0.71 | 37% 1002-1720 (2722) |
SU suntori<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $4.47 | $4.27 | -$0.2 | 46% 2743-3256 (5999) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $2.91 | $2.7 | -$0.21 | 50% 73-72 (145) |
0xheavy888Invested
$910.39
Value
$901.99
PnL
-$8.4
Record
54%
503-422 (925)
Invested
$357.14
Value
$377.43
PnL
+$20.29
Record
38%
1014-1686 (2700)
RN1Invested
$106
Value
$109
PnL
+$3
Record
55%
5402-4371 (9773)
Invested
$35.68
Value
$35.36
PnL
-$0.32
Record
48%
3239-3552 (6791)
Invested
$18.64
Value
$19.78
PnL
+$1.14
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Invested
$18.35
Value
$18.65
PnL
+$0.3
Record
53%
1811-1610 (3421)
Invested
$15.3
Value
$15.65
PnL
+$0.35
Record
55%
499-401 (900)
Invested
$12.27
Value
$12.41
PnL
+$0.14
Record
47%
936-1036 (1972)
Invested
$6.59
Value
$7.3
PnL
+$0.71
Record
37%
1002-1720 (2722)
Invested
$4.47
Value
$4.27
PnL
-$0.2
Record
46%
2743-3256 (5999)
Invested
$2.91
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$0.21
Record
50%
73-72 (145)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.