Portugal vs. Denmark: O/U 5.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 96¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Over4¢Under96¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$62

Smart Money Entry

92.3¢ → 95.9¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over4%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,124

Combined PnL-$70.76

Over6 traders

Total Value$38.35

Total Shares555

Combined PnL+$8.76

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 95¢	$728.4	$652.82	-$75.58	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 89¢	$308.37	$311.84	+$3.46	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
poshposh	Underavg 89¢	$133.5	$135	+$1.5	49% 1173-1237 (2410)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 3.8¢	$133.84	$18.2	+$7.12	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
HY hydra1248<$100	Underavg 90¢	$13.28	$13.13	-$0.15	75% 188-64 (252)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 7¢	$7	$10	+$3	52% 852-801 (1653)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Overavg 4¢	$7.45	$5.41	-$2.03	31% 104-232 (336)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 10¢	$2.08	$2.08	-$0	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 3.7¢	$0.93	$1.7	+$0.77	36% 481-851 (1332)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$1.04	$0.95	-$0.09	46% 2762-3273 (6035)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$728.4

Value

$652.82

PnL

-$75.58

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$308.37

Value

$311.84

PnL

+$3.46

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

poshposh

Under

Invested

$133.5

Value

$135

PnL

+$1.5

Record

49%

1173-1237 (2410)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$133.84

Value

$18.2

PnL

+$7.12

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

hydra1248<$100

Under

Invested

$13.28

Value

$13.13

PnL

-$0.15

Record

75%

188-64 (252)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$10

PnL

+$3

Record

52%

852-801 (1653)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.45

Value

$5.41

PnL

-$2.03

Record

31%

104-232 (336)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.08

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.93

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.77

Record

36%

481-851 (1332)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$0.09

Record

46%

2762-3273 (6035)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.