Portugal vs. Denmark: O/U 4.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 94¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$436.02

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 94¢

+20% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares8,035

Combined PnL+$435.62

Over3 traders

Total Value$27.4

Total Shares129

Combined PnL+$0.39

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 78.7¢	$4.0K	$4.4K	+$436.52	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
ZZ Zzzz87	Underavg 78¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$15.5	62% 95-59 (154)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 77¢	$792.57	$792.57	-$0	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 84.6¢	$377.18	$153.84	+$17.89	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
└ Under leg	Underavg 84.6¢	$108.83	$112.6	-$35.23
└ Over leg	Overavg 10.3¢	$33.99	$41.24	+$53.12
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 76¢	$138.45	$140.27	+$1.82	48% 301-331 (632)
FO foooool	Underavg 78¢	$88.7	$102.38	+$13.69	37% 78-132 (210)
Secondhandvinyl<$100	Underavg 90¢	$36	$34	-$2	76% 257-83 (340)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 76¢	$31.92	$32.34	+$0.42	55% 502-403 (905)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$23	$23	-$0	52% 852-801 (1653)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 78¢	$15.6	$15.4	-$0.2	48% 2164-2307 (4471)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 77¢	$21.74	$5.47	+$0.88	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 10¢	$2.11	$3.17	+$1.06	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$1.9	$1.24	-$0.66	46% 2762-3273 (6035)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$4,009.86

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$436.52

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

Zzzz87

Under

Invested

$1,209

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$15.5

Record

62%

95-59 (154)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$792.57

Value

$792.57

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$377.18

Value

$153.84

PnL

+$17.89

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

Both legs:

Under$108.8384.6¢-$35.23

Over$33.9910.3¢+$53.12

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$138.45

Value

$140.27

PnL

+$1.82

Record

48%

301-331 (632)

foooool

Under

Invested

$88.7

Value

$102.38

PnL

+$13.69

Record

37%

78-132 (210)

Secondhandvinyl<$100

Under

Invested

$36

Value

$34

PnL

-$2

Record

76%

257-83 (340)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.92

Value

$32.34

PnL

+$0.42

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23

Value

$23

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

852-801 (1653)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$15.6

Value

$15.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

2164-2307 (4471)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$21.74

Value

$5.47

PnL

+$0.88

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.11

Value

$3.17

PnL

+$1.06

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$0.66

Record

46%

2762-3273 (6035)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.