Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (60%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Portugal vs. Denmark: O/U 3.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 41¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Over41¢Under59¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$33.32

Smart Money Entry

40¢ → 40.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares10,293

Combined PnL+$4.65

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,459

Combined PnL+$28.67

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 40¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$0	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 58.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$28.63	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 40¢	$565.44	$572.5	+$7.07	42% 1008-1381 (2389)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 59¢	$173.5	$173.65	+$0.15	48% 293-321 (614)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$55.03	$52.41	-$2.62	61% 1042-661 (1703)
nigiri99<$100	Underavg 60¢	$36.6	$36.3	-$0.3	51% 568-535 (1103)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$30.11	$30.31	+$0.21	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 58¢	$11.05	$11.24	+$0.19	55% 474-384 (858)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$3,473.27

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,211.97

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$28.63

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$565.44

Value

$572.5

PnL

+$7.07

Record

42%

1008-1381 (2389)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$173.5

Value

$173.65

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$55.03

Value

$52.41

PnL

-$2.62

Record

61%

1042-661 (1703)

nigiri99<$100

Under

Invested

$36.6

Value

$36.3

PnL

-$0.3

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.11

Value

$30.31

PnL

+$0.21

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$11.05

Value

$11.24

PnL

+$0.19

Record

55%

474-384 (858)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 41%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.