Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (64%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Portugal vs. Denmark: O/U 2.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 37¢ · $131 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
$130.9
$0.49
36.1¢ → 36.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $78.16 | $79.25 | +$1.09 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 37¢ | $18.79 | $18.29 | -$0.51 | 56% 426-340 (766) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $12.04 | $12.04 | -$0 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Overavg 64¢ | $10.88 | $10.8 | -$0.09 | 51% 499-470 (969) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $8.73 | $8.73 | +$0 | 48% 2942-3249 (6191) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $1.8 | $1.8 | -$0 | 43% 920-1244 (2164) |
Invested
$78.16
Value
$79.25
PnL
+$1.09
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Invested
$18.79
Value
$18.29
PnL
-$0.51
Record
56%
426-340 (766)
Invested
$12.04
Value
$12.04
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$10.88
Value
$10.8
PnL
-$0.09
Record
51%
499-470 (969)
Invested
$8.73
Value
$8.73
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2942-3249 (6191)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$0
Record
43%
920-1244 (2164)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.