Portugal vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (11%) · Over at 84¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

Over84¢Under16¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 11%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$85.99

Research grade

NeutralOver at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over84%

Under17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares6,529

Combined PnL-$39.53

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares16,531

Combined PnL+$125.53

Over — 11%Under — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-89 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZZ Zzzz87	Overavg 84.1¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	-$39.53	62% 93-58 (151)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 16¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$46.38	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Underavg 15.2¢	$446.22	$485.67	+$39.45	48% 293-321 (614)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 15.8¢	$317.18	$330.92	+$13.74	42% 1008-1381 (2389)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 15.7¢	$213.99	$225.44	+$11.45	48% 912-1002 (1914)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 15¢	$143.4	$152.96	+$9.56	36% 455-810 (1265)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 15¢	$116.66	$124.82	+$8.16	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
└ Under leg	Underavg 15¢	$79.31	$87.25	+$7.93
└ Over leg	Overavg 83¢	$37.35	$37.57	+$0.22
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 15.4¢	$153.23	$58.46	+$4.62	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 15.6¢	$10.91	$10.51	+$0.61	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$9.69	$9.41	-$0.28	51% 568-535 (1103)

Zzzz87

Over

Invested

$5,491.25

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$39.53

Record

62%

93-58 (151)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,407.26

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$46.38

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Under

Invested

$446.22

Value

$485.67

PnL

+$39.45

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$317.18

Value

$330.92

PnL

+$13.74

Record

42%

1008-1381 (2389)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$213.99

Value

$225.44

PnL

+$11.45

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$143.4

Value

$152.96

PnL

+$9.56

Record

36%

455-810 (1265)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$116.66

Value

$124.82

PnL

+$8.16

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

Both legs:

Invested

$153.23

Value

$58.46

PnL

+$4.62

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.91

Value

$10.51

PnL

+$0.61

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.69

Value

$9.41

PnL

-$0.28

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-89 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.