Portugal vs. Denmark: Portugal O/U 1.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (82%) · Under at 59¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Over41¢Under59¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 82%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$224.4

Smart Money Entry

37.3¢ → 59¢

+58% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares14,311

Combined PnL+$228.06

Over2 traders

Total Value$340.66

Total Shares533

Combined PnL-$3.67

Under — 82%Over — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 36¢	$2.9K	$3.2K	+$268.88	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 38¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$1.99	47% 936-1037 (1973)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 40.7¢	$460.55	$430.36	-$30.2	36% 481-851 (1332)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 36.5¢	$353.82	$368.03	+$14.21	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR	Overavg 65¢	$325	$320	-$5	61% 14-9 (23)
GG ggA11xcr	Underavg 46¢	$184	$152	-$32	20% 4-16 (20)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 36.3¢	$92.67	$96.93	+$4.25	55% 502-403 (905)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$19.33	$20.66	+$1.33	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 42¢	$14	$18	+$4	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 35.3¢	$14.15	$3.73	+$0.9	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 47¢	$3.17	$3.17	-$0	36% 979-1704 (2683)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$2,948.79

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$268.88

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$1,545.37

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$1.99

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$460.55

Value

$430.36

PnL

-$30.2

Record

36%

481-851 (1332)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$353.82

Value

$368.03

PnL

+$14.21

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR

Over

Invested

$325

Value

$320

PnL

-$5

Record

61%

14-9 (23)

ggA11xcr

Under

Invested

$184

Value

$152

PnL

-$32

Record

20%

4-16 (20)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$92.67

Value

$96.93

PnL

+$4.25

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.33

Value

$20.66

PnL

+$1.33

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$14

Value

$18

PnL

+$4

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$14.15

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.9

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$3.17

Value

$3.17

PnL

-$0

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.