Portugal vs. Denmark: Denmark O/U 0.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 22%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$324.65

Smart Money Entry

69.3¢ → 100¢

+44% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$585.55

Total Shares612

Combined PnL+$161.13

Under7 traders

Total Value$438.45

Total Shares876

Combined PnL+$163.52

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	Overavg 69.2¢	$380.92	$547.34	+$166.42	46% 2762-3273 (6035)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 31¢	$173.28	$282.28	+$109	47% 936-1037 (1973)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$40.81	$68.7	+$27.89	36% 481-851 (1332)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100	Overavg 70¢	$43.5	$38.22	-$5.28	26% 61-178 (239)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 32.9¢	$23.57	$36.2	+$12.63	55% 502-403 (905)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$21.5	$22.75	+$1.25	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 32.1¢	$12.43	$19.54	+$7.11	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 14.5¢	$2.14	$7.36	+$5.22	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$1.2	$1.62	+$0.42	45% 679-837 (1516)

suntori

Over

Invested

$380.92

Value

$547.34

PnL

+$166.42

Record

46%

2762-3273 (6035)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$173.28

Value

$282.28

PnL

+$109

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.81

Value

$68.7

PnL

+$27.89

Record

36%

481-851 (1332)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100

Over

Invested

$43.5

Value

$38.22

PnL

-$5.28

Record

26%

61-178 (239)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.57

Value

$36.2

PnL

+$12.63

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.5

Value

$22.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.43

Value

$19.54

PnL

+$7.11

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.14

Value

$7.36

PnL

+$5.22

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.62

PnL

+$0.42

Record

45%

679-837 (1516)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.