Spread: Portugal (-2.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Denmark (50%) · Denmark at 83¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Portugal18¢Denmark82¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Denmark

Consensus Traders

Denmark 50%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$73.7

Smart Money Entry

81¢ → 82.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDenmark at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Denmark

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Portugal18%

Denmark83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Denmark4 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares5,035

Combined PnL+$77

Portugal4 traders

Total Value$54.16

Total Shares285

Combined PnL-$3.31

Denmark — 50%Portugal — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Denmark. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPortugal 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Portugal 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Denmarkavg 81¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$75.48	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
38 38791873984189<$100	Denmarkavg 80¢	$30.88	$30.88	+$0	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Portugalavg 21¢	$26.08	$24.84	-$1.24	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Portugalavg 18.8¢	$16.84	$16.14	-$0.7	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Denmarkavg 77¢	$38.4	$14.04	+$1.56	48% 301-330 (631)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Portugalavg 20¢	$8.72	$7.63	-$1.09	37% 1002-1720 (2722)
nigiri99<$100	Denmarkavg 81¢	$5.67	$5.64	-$0.03	51% 568-535 (1103)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Portugalavg 21¢	$5.83	$5.55	-$0.28	42% 1030-1415 (2445)

GoalLineGhost

Denmark

Invested

$4,025.89

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$75.48

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

38791873984189<$100

Denmark

Invested

$30.88

Value

$30.88

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Portugal

Invested

$26.08

Value

$24.84

PnL

-$1.24

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Portugal

Invested

$16.84

Value

$16.14

PnL

-$0.7

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Denmark

Invested

$38.4

Value

$14.04

PnL

+$1.56

Record

48%

301-330 (631)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Portugal

Invested

$8.72

Value

$7.63

PnL

-$1.09

Record

37%

1002-1720 (2722)

nigiri99<$100

Denmark

Invested

$5.67

Value

$5.64

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

sentrioCTR<$100

Portugal

Invested

$5.83

Value

$5.55

PnL

-$0.28

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

Research grade

NeutralDenmark at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Denmark

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Denmark. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPortugal 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Portugal 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Denmark wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.