Spread: Portugal (-1.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Denmark (43%) · Denmark at 62¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Denmark
7
Denmark 43%
$5.9K
$50.23
60.9¢ → 61.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralDenmark at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Denmarkavg 61¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$28.17 | 51% 2485-2431 (4916) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Portugalavg 39¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$13.03 | 49% 3740-3887 (7627) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Portugalavg 39¢ | $958.68 | $961.23 | +$2.55 | 53% 2050-1788 (3838) |
SE sentrioCTR | Portugalavg 39¢ | $240.86 | $243.88 | +$3.02 | 42% 970-1328 (2298) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Denmarkavg 58.7¢ | $95.59 | $97.79 | +$2.2 | 56% 444-355 (799) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Denmarkavg 58¢ | $29.66 | $30.68 | +$1.02 | 48% 3155-3450 (6605) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Portugalavg 39¢ | $17.91 | $18.14 | +$0.23 | 52% 1661-1516 (3177) |
Invested
$3,436.95
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$28.17
Record
51%
2485-2431 (4916)
Invested
$1,021.17
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$13.03
Record
49%
3740-3887 (7627)
Invested
$958.68
Value
$961.23
PnL
+$2.55
Record
53%
2050-1788 (3838)
Invested
$240.86
Value
$243.88
PnL
+$3.02
Record
42%
970-1328 (2298)
Invested
$95.59
Value
$97.79
PnL
+$2.2
Record
56%
444-355 (799)
Invested
$29.66
Value
$30.68
PnL
+$1.02
Record
48%
3155-3450 (6605)
Invested
$17.91
Value
$18.14
PnL
+$0.23
Record
52%
1661-1516 (3177)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.