Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Denmark, while the market favors Portugal (94%). 10 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Denmark (-1.5)

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Denmark (71%) · Denmark at 6.0¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14

Denmark6¢Portugal94¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Denmark

Consensus Traders

Denmark 71%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$139.07

Smart Money Entry

5.6¢ → 6¢

+7% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidDenmark at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Denmark

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Portugal 94%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Denmark6%

Portugal94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Denmark10 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares65,310

Combined PnL+$137.4

Portugal4 traders

Total Value$933.73

Total Shares979

Combined PnL+$1.68

Denmark — 71%Portugal — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadoxCTR	Denmarkavg 6¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$1.5	37% 1002-1720 (2722)
nigiri99	Portugalavg 94¢	$799.09	$799	-$0.09	51% 568-535 (1103)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Denmarkavg 5¢	$559.84	$669.3	+$109.45	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Denmarkavg 5.4¢	$529.93	$538.65	+$8.72	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Denmarkavg 5.6¢	$334.69	$331.22	-$3.47	47% 936-1036 (1972)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Denmarkavg 5.5¢	$309.96	$311.63	+$1.67	48% 301-330 (631)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Denmarkavg 5¢	$212.03	$233.24	+$21.2	39% 124-191 (315)
38 38791873984189	Portugalavg 93¢	$101.21	$102.59	+$1.38	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Denmarkavg 6¢	$83.58	$83.58	+$0	36% 975-1701 (2676)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Denmarkavg 6¢	$68.24	$68.24	+$0	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Portugalavg 94¢	$27.1	$27.39	+$0.29	50% 161-158 (319)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Denmarkavg 5.8¢	$14.54	$13.86	-$0.68	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Denmarkavg 6¢	$6	$5	-$1	37% 991-1715 (2706)
SE sentrio<$100	Portugalavg 93¢	$4.65	$4.75	+$0.1	42% 1030-1415 (2445)

LightParadoxCTR

Denmark

Invested

$1,544.95

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$1.5

Record

37%

1002-1720 (2722)

nigiri99

Portugal

Invested

$799.09

Value

$799

PnL

-$0.09

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

FlaznorpCTR

Denmark

Invested

$559.84

Value

$669.3

PnL

+$109.45

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Denmark

Invested

$529.93

Value

$538.65

PnL

+$8.72

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

SnakeBallCTR

Denmark

Invested

$334.69

Value

$331.22

PnL

-$3.47

Record

47%

936-1036 (1972)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Denmark

Invested

$309.96

Value

$311.63

PnL

+$1.67

Record

48%

301-330 (631)

mouzsynapseCTR

Denmark

Invested

$212.03

Value

$233.24

PnL

+$21.2

Record

39%

124-191 (315)

38791873984189

Portugal

Invested

$101.21

Value

$102.59

PnL

+$1.38

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

LimousinCTR<$100

Denmark

Invested

$83.58

Value

$83.58

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Denmark

Invested

$68.24

Value

$68.24

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Portugal

Invested

$27.1

Value

$27.39

PnL

+$0.29

Record

50%

161-158 (319)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Denmark

Invested

$14.54

Value

$13.86

PnL

-$0.68

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

VenusianCTR<$100

Denmark

Invested

Value

PnL

-$1

Record

37%

991-1715 (2706)

sentrio<$100

Portugal

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$0.1

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

Research grade

AvoidDenmark at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Denmark

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Portugal 94%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Denmark wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.3%

6.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1265.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

1365.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.