Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Portugal win on 2026-11-14?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 35¢ · $637 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$636.74
$22.56
33.2¢ → 34.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 33.1¢ | $263.52 | $469.88 | +$19.9 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 33.7¢ | $84.17 | $81.31 | +$2.14 | 47% 171-192 (363) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $58.24 | $58.24 | -$0.44 | 4% 21-541 (562) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $3.6 | $13.9 | +$0.76 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $13.39 | $13.39 | +$0.2 | 7% 7-88 (95) |
Invested
$263.52
Value
$469.88
PnL
+$19.9
Record
50%
1275-1295 (2570)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$84.17
Value
$81.31
PnL
+$2.14
Record
47%
171-192 (363)
Invested
$58.24
Value
$58.24
PnL
-$0.44
Record
4%
21-541 (562)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$13.9
PnL
+$0.76
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$13.39
Value
$13.39
PnL
+$0.2
Record
7%
7-88 (95)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.