Portugal leading at halftime?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 86¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$95.55

Smart Money Entry

67.2¢ → 85.5¢

+27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,733

Combined PnL+$110.57

Yes2 traders

Total Value$59.24

Total Shares291

Combined PnL-$15.02

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 64.2¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$111.25	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
LI Limousin	Noavg 74¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$37.25	36% 979-1704 (2683)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$503.05	$561.59	+$58.54	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26¢	$387.4	$402.3	+$14.9
└ No leg	Noavg 53¢	$115.65	$159.3	+$43.64
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 54¢	$158.9	$198.58	+$39.69	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 54.4¢	$50.33	$47.67	-$2.66	37% 996-1715 (2711)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.4¢	$98.64	$41.86	+$9.61	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 52¢	$22.21	$22.01	-$0.2	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 43.5¢	$42.01	$17.38	-$24.63	46% 2762-3273 (6035)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 66¢	$3.3	$3.08	-$0.22	48% 2164-2307 (4471)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 52¢	$2.17	$2.15	-$0.02	48% 301-331 (632)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,458.89

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$111.25

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

Limousin

Invested

$1,102.6

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$37.25

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$503.05

Value

$561.59

PnL

+$58.54

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

Both legs:

Yes$387.426¢+$14.9

No$115.6553¢+$43.64

topdogbigboi

Invested

$158.9

Value

$198.58

PnL

+$39.69

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$50.33

Value

$47.67

PnL

-$2.66

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.64

Value

$41.86

PnL

+$9.61

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$22.21

Value

$22.01

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.01

Value

$17.38

PnL

-$24.63

Record

46%

2762-3273 (6035)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.08

PnL

-$0.22

Record

48%

2164-2307 (4471)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$2.17

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

301-331 (632)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.