Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 5 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Denmark leading at halftime?

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$-4.3K

Smart Money Entry

79¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares8,918

Combined PnL$-6.1K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,157

Combined PnL+$1.8K

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 80.6¢	$3.1K	$1.5K	$-1.6K	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
SH shiifoo	Yesavg 22¢	$140.96	$640.41	+$499.45	61% 1432-915 (2347)
SM smithagent	Yesavg 23.8¢	$146.71	$615.66	+$468.95	45% 679-837 (1516)
RN1	Yesavg 20.2¢	$139.63	$603.61	+$463.98	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
ZaiZoiBeleCTR	Noavg 78¢	$4.9K	$485.25	$-4.4K	22% 65-235 (300)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 44.5¢	$184.51	$279.85	+$95.34	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
dips.	Yesavg 31.7¢	$83.71	$263.6	+$179.89	47% 993-1122 (2115)
SL SlickRick123	Yesavg 43¢	$138.73	$206.48	+$67.75	35% 378-716 (1094)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 71.6¢	$255.82	$191.34	-$1.21	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 83.5¢	$76.57	$72.41	-$4.16	36% 979-1704 (2683)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$4.43	$20.13	+$15.7	51% 163-158 (321)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 84.8¢	$21.84	$2.88	-$18.96	48% 2164-2307 (4471)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 86¢	$85.33	$0.05	-$85.28	38% 1015-1688 (2703)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$3,083.74

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

shiifoo

Yes

Invested

$140.96

Value

$640.41

PnL

+$499.45

Record

61%

1432-915 (2347)

smithagent

Yes

Invested

$146.71

Value

$615.66

PnL

+$468.95

Record

45%

679-837 (1516)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$139.63

Value

$603.61

PnL

+$463.98

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

ZaiZoiBeleCTR

Invested

$4,915.27

Value

$485.25

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

22%

65-235 (300)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$184.51

Value

$279.85

PnL

+$95.34

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$83.71

Value

$263.6

PnL

+$179.89

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

SlickRick123

Yes

Invested

$138.73

Value

$206.48

PnL

+$67.75

Record

35%

378-716 (1094)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$255.82

Value

$191.34

PnL

-$1.21

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$76.57

Value

$72.41

PnL

-$4.16

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.43

Value

$20.13

PnL

+$15.7

Record

51%

163-158 (321)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$21.84

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$18.96

Record

48%

2164-2307 (4471)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$85.33

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$85.28

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.