Portugal vs. Denmark: 1st Half O/U 1.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 63¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
1 arb excluded
$4.2K
-$79.89
54.8¢ → 63¢
+15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 54.7¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$61.09 | 55% 5402-4371 (9773) |
 nigiri99CTR | Overavg 44.7¢ | $955.24 | $780.37 | -$174.87 | 51% 568-535 (1103) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $480.03 | $466.77 | -$7.18 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 59.8¢ | $221.86 | $233.86 | +$12 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 40¢ | $251.77 | $232.91 | -$19.18 | |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 55.5¢ | $302.95 | $237.35 | +$32.98 | 48% 3239-3552 (6791) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $62.46 | $63.01 | +$0.55 | 55% 499-401 (900) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 55.4¢ | $36.61 | $37.37 | +$0.75 | 53% 1811-1610 (3421) |
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $2.99 | $2.82 | -$0.17 | 21% 60-223 (283) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $1.93 | -$0.22 | 48% 2157-2304 (4461) |
RN1Invested
$2,592.05
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$61.09
Record
55%
5402-4371 (9773)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$955.24
Value
$780.37
PnL
-$174.87
Record
51%
568-535 (1103)
Invested
$480.03
Value
$466.77
PnL
-$7.18
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Both legs:
Invested
$302.95
Value
$237.35
PnL
+$32.98
Record
48%
3239-3552 (6791)
Invested
$62.46
Value
$63.01
PnL
+$0.55
Record
55%
499-401 (900)
Invested
$36.61
Value
$37.37
PnL
+$0.75
Record
53%
1811-1610 (3421)
Invested
$2.99
Value
$2.82
PnL
-$0.17
Record
21%
60-223 (283)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$1.93
PnL
-$0.22
Record
48%
2157-2304 (4461)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.