Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Denmark?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 86¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$2.4K
$260.51
95.6¢ → 86.4¢
-10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Noavg 95.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$3.43 | 38% 1014-1686 (2700) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $90.68 | $326.21 | +$235.54 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 95.5¢ | $231.51 | $231.47 | -$0.04 | 37% 1002-1720 (2722) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $673.82 | $128.69 | +$10.46 | 48% 3239-3552 (6791) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $40.49 | +$17.97 | 23% 25-85 (110) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $25.26 | $25.26 | -$0 | 36% 975-1701 (2676) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.4¢ | $9.29 | $9.31 | +$0.01 | 53% 1811-1610 (3421) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $7.61 | $7.61 | +$0 | 46% 2743-3256 (5999) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $1.19 | $1.19 | +$0 | 42% 1030-1415 (2445) |
Invested
$1,639.07
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$3.43
Record
38%
1014-1686 (2700)
Invested
$90.68
Value
$326.21
PnL
+$235.54
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Invested
$231.51
Value
$231.47
PnL
-$0.04
Record
37%
1002-1720 (2722)
Invested
$673.82
Value
$128.69
PnL
+$10.46
Record
48%
3239-3552 (6791)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$40.49
PnL
+$17.97
Record
23%
25-85 (110)
Invested
$25.26
Value
$25.26
PnL
-$0
Record
36%
975-1701 (2676)
Invested
$9.29
Value
$9.31
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
1811-1610 (3421)
Invested
$7.61
Value
$7.61
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
2743-3256 (5999)
Invested
$1.19
Value
$1.19
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
1030-1415 (2445)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.