Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Denmark?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$47.86

Smart Money Entry

92.4¢ → 96.5¢

+4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,749

Combined PnL+$0.27

Yes3 traders

Total Value$107.39

Total Shares1,591

Combined PnL+$47.59

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 93¢	$462.08	$462.08	-$0	36% 477-850 (1327)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 92¢	$376.97	$376.97	+$0	48% 301-330 (631)
GC GC-P	Noavg 92¢	$322	$322	+$0	37% 367-618 (985)
NM NM-P	Noavg 92.2¢	$281.85	$281.28	-$0.57	59% 3775-2600 (6375)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 92.8¢	$111.6	$112.44	+$0.84	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$70	+$42.97	23% 25-85 (110)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$99.91	$25.44	+$18.17	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 93¢	$25.11	$25.11	+$0	37% 991-1715 (2706)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 93¢	$18.6	$18.6	+$0	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 93¢	$17.71	$17.71	+$0	47% 936-1036 (1972)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$25.5	$11.95	-$13.55	46% 2743-3256 (5999)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$462.08

Value

$462.08

PnL

-$0

Record

36%

477-850 (1327)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$376.97

Value

$376.97

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

301-330 (631)

GC-P

Invested

$322

Value

$322

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

NM-P

Invested

$281.85

Value

$281.28

PnL

-$0.57

Record

59%

3775-2600 (6375)

ghorrock

Invested

$111.6

Value

$112.44

PnL

+$0.84

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$70

PnL

+$42.97

Record

23%

25-85 (110)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.91

Value

$25.44

PnL

+$18.17

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$25.11

Value

$25.11

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

991-1715 (2706)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$18.6

Value

$18.6

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$17.71

Value

$17.71

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

936-1036 (1972)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.5

Value

$11.95

PnL

-$13.55

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.