Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Denmark?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 89¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$2.7K
$123.86
88.2¢ → 89¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+11 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 88¢ | $661.25 | $668.76 | +$7.51 | 48% 912-1002 (1914) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 88.5¢ | $619.5 | $623 | +$3.5 | 59% 3772-2596 (6368) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 88.3¢ | $474.96 | $478.46 | +$3.5 | 37% 364-613 (977) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 88¢ | $458.12 | $463.32 | +$5.21 | 53% 1376-1196 (2572) |
SU suntoriCTR | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $127.3 | $124.85 | -$1.49 | 46% 2702-3200 (5902) |
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $110.34 | +$83.31 | 23% 25-85 (110) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88.4¢ | $91.97 | $92.54 | +$0.57 | 53% 1809-1607 (3416) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 88.1¢ | $240.23 | $91.03 | +$21.7 | 48% 3231-3545 (6776) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $0.95 | $0.99 | +$0.05 | 49% 3867-4029 (7896) |
Invested
$661.25
Value
$668.76
PnL
+$7.51
Record
48%
912-1002 (1914)
Invested
$619.5
Value
$623
PnL
+$3.5
Record
59%
3772-2596 (6368)
Invested
$474.96
Value
$478.46
PnL
+$3.5
Record
37%
364-613 (977)
VeryLucky888Invested
$458.12
Value
$463.32
PnL
+$5.21
Record
53%
1376-1196 (2572)
Invested
$127.3
Value
$124.85
PnL
-$1.49
Record
46%
2702-3200 (5902)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$110.34
PnL
+$83.31
Record
23%
25-85 (110)
Invested
$91.97
Value
$92.54
PnL
+$0.57
Record
53%
1809-1607 (3416)
Invested
$240.23
Value
$91.03
PnL
+$21.7
Record
48%
3231-3545 (6776)
Invested
$0.95
Value
$0.99
PnL
+$0.05
Record
49%
3867-4029 (7896)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.