Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Denmark?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$135.91

Smart Money Entry

91.4¢ → 95¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,472

Combined PnL+$16.51

Yes4 traders

Total Value$252.1

Total Shares2,669

Combined PnL+$119.4

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 92¢	$678.04	$700.15	+$22.11	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
GC GC-P	Noavg 90.7¢	$308.19	$305.94	-$2.25	37% 367-618 (985)
NM NM-P	Noavg 90.7¢	$213.25	$211.5	-$1.75	59% 3775-2600 (6375)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 91¢	$101.11	$100	-$1.11	47% 936-1037 (1973)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$71.76	$98.67	+$26.91	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$90	+$62.97	23% 25-85 (110)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91¢	$33.24	$32.88	-$0.37	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.6¢	$28.25	$32.47	+$4.22	46% 2762-3273 (6035)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$63.16	$30.96	+$25.3	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 91¢	$10.92	$10.8	-$0.12	37% 996-1715 (2711)

RN1

Invested

$678.04

Value

$700.15

PnL

+$22.11

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

GC-P

Invested

$308.19

Value

$305.94

PnL

-$2.25

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

NM-P

Invested

$213.25

Value

$211.5

PnL

-$1.75

Record

59%

3775-2600 (6375)

SnakeBall

Invested

$101.11

Value

$100

PnL

-$1.11

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.76

Value

$98.67

PnL

+$26.91

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$90

PnL

+$62.97

Record

23%

25-85 (110)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.24

Value

$32.88

PnL

-$0.37

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.25

Value

$32.47

PnL

+$4.22

Record

46%

2762-3273 (6035)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.16

Value

$30.96

PnL

+$25.3

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$10.92

Value

$10.8

PnL

-$0.12

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.