Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Denmark?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 84¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$16.34
94.7¢ → 84.2¢
-11% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Noavg 95.1¢ | $447.7 | $443.68 | -$4.01 | 37% 996-1715 (2711) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 95¢ | $421.13 | $418.47 | -$2.66 | 38% 1015-1688 (2703) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $239.49 | $276.59 | +$37.1 | 49% 3969-4117 (8086) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 5¢ | $168.71 | $205.85 | +$37.14 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 94¢ | $70.78 | $70.74 | -$0.04 | |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 93.6¢ | $165.5 | $165.55 | +$0.05 | 47% 936-1037 (1973) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 93.7¢ | $423.21 | $86.32 | +$17.95 | 48% 3239-3552 (6791) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $19.19 | $23.19 | +$4 | 42% 1031-1416 (2447) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $17.32 | $16.19 | -$0.13 | 53% 1815-1613 (3428) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $12.6 | $13 | +$0.4 | 55% 5404-4376 (9780) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $5.74 | $6.01 | +$0.28 | 48% 2164-2307 (4471) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.2¢ | $4.17 | $3.59 | +$0.47 | 46% 2762-3273 (6035) |
Invested
$447.7
Value
$443.68
PnL
-$4.01
Record
37%
996-1715 (2711)
Invested
$421.13
Value
$418.47
PnL
-$2.66
Record
38%
1015-1688 (2703)
Invested
$239.49
Value
$276.59
PnL
+$37.1
Record
49%
3969-4117 (8086)
Both legs:
Invested
$165.5
Value
$165.55
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
936-1037 (1973)
Invested
$423.21
Value
$86.32
PnL
+$17.95
Record
48%
3239-3552 (6791)
Invested
$19.19
Value
$23.19
PnL
+$4
Record
42%
1031-1416 (2447)
Invested
$17.32
Value
$16.19
PnL
-$0.13
Record
53%
1815-1613 (3428)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$12.6
Value
$13
PnL
+$0.4
Record
55%
5404-4376 (9780)
Invested
$5.74
Value
$6.01
PnL
+$0.28
Record
48%
2164-2307 (4471)
Invested
$4.17
Value
$3.59
PnL
+$0.47
Record
46%
2762-3273 (6035)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.