Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Denmark?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 81¢ · $945 held · ended Nov 14

Yes19¢No81¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$944.72

Combined PnL

$165.9

Smart Money Entry

90.2¢ → 81¢

-10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$738.73

Total Shares766

Combined PnL+$13.19

Yes4 traders

Total Value$205.99

Total Shares1,874

Combined PnL+$152.7

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-P	Noavg 90¢	$320.91	$327.91	+$7	37% 367-618 (985)
NM NM-P	Noavg 90.2¢	$294.41	$299.65	+$5.24	59% 3775-2600 (6375)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$113.22	$87.99	+$93.41	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$80	+$52.97	23% 25-85 (110)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 91¢	$78.2	$79.06	+$0.86	36% 979-1704 (2683)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$29.79	$36.32	+$6.53	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 88¢	$16.64	$16.74	+$0.09	36% 481-851 (1332)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92¢	$15.37	$15.37	+$0	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1.9	$1.69	-$0.21	46% 2762-3273 (6035)

GC-P

Invested

$320.91

Value

$327.91

PnL

+$7

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

NM-P

Invested

$294.41

Value

$299.65

PnL

+$5.24

Record

59%

3775-2600 (6375)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$113.22

Value

$87.99

PnL

+$93.41

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$80

PnL

+$52.97

Record

23%

25-85 (110)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$78.2

Value

$79.06

PnL

+$0.86

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.79

Value

$36.32

PnL

+$6.53

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$16.64

Value

$16.74

PnL

+$0.09

Record

36%

481-851 (1332)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.37

Value

$15.37

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$0.21

Record

46%

2762-3273 (6035)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.