Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 Denmark?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 3.5¢ · $56 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$56.27
$14.88
Research grade
AvoidYes at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $38 | +$10.97 | 23% 25-85 (110) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $3.48 | $6.61 | +$3.13 | 49% 3769-3940 (7709) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $4.2 | -$0.7 | 52% 1696-1538 (3234) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $3.46 | $3.46 | -$0 | 52% 567-532 (1099) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $1.62 | $2.28 | +$0.66 | 48% 3192-3494 (6686) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.9 | $1.72 | +$0.81 | 42% 979-1345 (2324) |
Invested
$27.03
Value
$38
PnL
+$10.97
Record
23%
25-85 (110)
Invested
$3.48
Value
$6.61
PnL
+$3.13
Record
49%
3769-3940 (7709)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$0.7
Record
52%
1696-1538 (3234)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$3.46
Value
$3.46
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
567-532 (1099)
Invested
$1.62
Value
$2.28
PnL
+$0.66
Record
48%
3192-3494 (6686)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$1.72
PnL
+$0.81
Record
42%
979-1345 (2324)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.