Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Denmark?
4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 33%
$1.9K
$79.8
94.6¢ → 92.3¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 94.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$6.94 | 49% 3969-4117 (8086) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $34.84 | $73.13 | +$38.3 | 47% 936-1037 (1973) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | $68.7 | $69.97 | +$1.27 | 36% 979-1704 (2683) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $62.27 | $62.91 | +$0.65 | 59% 3775-2600 (6375) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $37.38 | $37.57 | +$0.19 | 37% 367-618 (985) |
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $34 | +$6.97 | 23% 25-85 (110) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.5¢ | $13.97 | $28.11 | +$14.14 | 37% 996-1715 (2711) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $278.57 | $21.65 | +$22.27 | 48% 3239-3552 (6791) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $11.96 | $14.85 | +$2.89 | 37% 1003-1721 (2724) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $4.8 | $4.84 | +$0.04 | 48% 2164-2307 (4471) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | $2.12 | $2.16 | +$0.04 | 38% 1015-1688 (2703) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $1.21 | $1.01 | -$0.01 | 53% 1815-1613 (3428) |
Invested
$1,560.88
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$6.94
Record
49%
3969-4117 (8086)
Invested
$34.84
Value
$73.13
PnL
+$38.3
Record
47%
936-1037 (1973)
Invested
$68.7
Value
$69.97
PnL
+$1.27
Record
36%
979-1704 (2683)
Invested
$62.27
Value
$62.91
PnL
+$0.65
Record
59%
3775-2600 (6375)
Invested
$37.38
Value
$37.57
PnL
+$0.19
Record
37%
367-618 (985)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$34
PnL
+$6.97
Record
23%
25-85 (110)
Invested
$13.97
Value
$28.11
PnL
+$14.14
Record
37%
996-1715 (2711)
Invested
$278.57
Value
$21.65
PnL
+$22.27
Record
48%
3239-3552 (6791)
Invested
$11.96
Value
$14.85
PnL
+$2.89
Record
37%
1003-1721 (2724)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.84
PnL
+$0.04
Record
48%
2164-2307 (4471)
Invested
$2.12
Value
$2.16
PnL
+$0.04
Record
38%
1015-1688 (2703)
Invested
$1.21
Value
$1.01
PnL
-$0.01
Record
53%
1815-1613 (3428)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.