Will Portugal vs. Denmark end in a draw?
3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 79¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 30%
$3.4K
$36.14
79¢ → 78.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-50 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C6 C63AMG | Noavg 79¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$30 | 76% 16-5 (21) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 21¢ | $482.56 | $494.05 | +$11.49 | 37% 956-1658 (2614) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 78.6¢ | $243.74 | $157.27 | -$12.47 | 48% 3196-3499 (6695) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Yesavg 21¢ | $151.84 | $155.46 | +$3.62 | 37% 965-1630 (2595) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $64 | $63.2 | -$0.8 | 32% 99-206 (305) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.1¢ | $54.44 | $58.31 | +$3.87 | 49% 3801-3964 (7765) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $38.09 | $37.22 | -$0.87 | 46% 2583-3072 (5655) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $22.39 | $23.56 | +$1.18 | 59% 3761-2587 (6348) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $11 | $11 | +$0 | 36% 944-1666 (2610) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $2.28 | $2.4 | +$0.12 | 52% 1709-1558 (3267) |
Invested
$2,369.99
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$30
Record
76%
16-5 (21)
Invested
$482.56
Value
$494.05
PnL
+$11.49
Record
37%
956-1658 (2614)
Invested
$243.74
Value
$157.27
PnL
-$12.47
Record
48%
3196-3499 (6695)
Invested
$151.84
Value
$155.46
PnL
+$3.62
Record
37%
965-1630 (2595)
Invested
$64
Value
$63.2
PnL
-$0.8
Record
32%
99-206 (305)
Invested
$54.44
Value
$58.31
PnL
+$3.87
Record
49%
3801-3964 (7765)
Invested
$38.09
Value
$37.22
PnL
-$0.87
Record
46%
2583-3072 (5655)
Invested
$22.39
Value
$23.56
PnL
+$1.18
Record
59%
3761-2587 (6348)
Invested
$11
Value
$11
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
944-1666 (2610)
Invested
$2.28
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0.12
Record
52%
1709-1558 (3267)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.