Will Denmark win on 2026-11-14?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
-$2.25
83.9¢ → 84.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-P | Noavg 84¢ | $686.95 | $691.04 | +$4.09 | 36% 319-557 (876) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 83.9¢ | $623.89 | $624.92 | +$1.03 | 59% 3728-2540 (6268) |
OD Oddstorm | Noavg 84¢ | $183.68 | $183.68 | +$0 | 32% 92-195 (287) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Noavg 84¢ | $124.98 | $124.98 | +$0 | 62% 1024-638 (1662) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 84.5¢ | $94.03 | $93.57 | -$0.46 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 84.5¢ | $72.27 | $71.81 | -$0.46 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 15¢ | $21.76 | $21.76 | -$0 | |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 83.7¢ | $124.01 | $83.34 | +$0.88 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $16.51 | $16.51 | -$0 | 43% 920-1244 (2164) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.3¢ | $15 | $6.75 | -$8.25 | 48% 2942-3249 (6191) |
Invested
$686.95
Value
$691.04
PnL
+$4.09
Record
36%
319-557 (876)
Invested
$623.89
Value
$624.92
PnL
+$1.03
Record
59%
3728-2540 (6268)
Invested
$183.68
Value
$183.68
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
92-195 (287)
Invested
$124.98
Value
$124.98
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
1024-638 (1662)
Invested
$94.03
Value
$93.57
PnL
-$0.46
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Both legs:
Invested
$124.01
Value
$83.34
PnL
+$0.88
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
Invested
$16.51
Value
$16.51
PnL
-$0
Record
43%
920-1244 (2164)
Invested
$15
Value
$6.75
PnL
-$8.25
Record
48%
2942-3249 (6191)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.