Portugal vs. Denmark: Both Teams to Score
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 59¢ · $697 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$697.15
-$2.68
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Yesavg 59¢ | $365.21 | $362.11 | -$3.1 | 51% 499-470 (969) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 41.5¢ | $289.6 | $289.72 | +$0.12 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $28.7 | $29.05 | +$0.35 | 56% 426-340 (766) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 41.5¢ | $14.21 | $14.21 | +$0 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $2.1 | $2.05 | -$0.05 | 43% 920-1244 (2164) |
nigiri99Invested
$365.21
Value
$362.11
PnL
-$3.1
Record
51%
499-470 (969)
Invested
$289.6
Value
$289.72
PnL
+$0.12
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Invested
$28.7
Value
$29.05
PnL
+$0.35
Record
56%
426-340 (766)
Invested
$14.21
Value
$14.21
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$2.05
PnL
-$0.05
Record
43%
920-1244 (2164)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.