Will Wales win on 2026-11-14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 93¢ · $934 held · ends Nov 14

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$933.93

Combined PnL

-$3.81

Smart Money Entry

91.9¢ → 92.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$881.83

Total Shares947

Combined PnL-$1.37

Yes3 traders

Total Value$52.1

Total Shares683

Combined PnL-$2.45

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-P	Noavg 92¢	$471.5	$474.06	+$2.56	33% 251-499 (750)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 91.7¢	$323.26	$324.5	+$1.24	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 92¢	$59.54	$60.34	+$0.79	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
KA KaczkaCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$40	$37.5	-$2.5	1% 2-176 (178)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$13.73	$13.73	+$0	30% 77-180 (257)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91¢	$33.35	$10.72	-$5.97	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 92¢	$10.23	$10.23	+$0	43% 808-1065 (1873)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 92¢	$1.98	$1.98	+$0	56% 307-245 (552)
0X 0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52bCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$0.82	$0.87	+$0.05	— 14-5 (19)

GC-P

Invested

$471.5

Value

$474.06

PnL

+$2.56

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

Flaznorp

Invested

$323.26

Value

$324.5

PnL

+$1.24

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$59.54

Value

$60.34

PnL

+$0.79

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

KaczkaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40

Value

$37.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

2-176 (178)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.73

Value

$13.73

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

77-180 (257)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.35

Value

$10.72

PnL

-$5.97

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$10.23

Value

$10.23

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$1.98

Value

$1.98

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52bCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.87

PnL

+$0.05

Record

—

14-5 (19)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.