Norway vs. Wales: O/U 5.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 87¢ · $639 held · ends Nov 14

Over14¢Under86¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$639.35

Combined PnL

$9.48

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 86.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$599.69

Total Shares687

Combined PnL+$7.88

Over5 traders

Total Value$39.66

Total Shares274

Combined PnL+$1.6

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 85.5¢	$262.18	$265.26	+$3.08	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 84¢	$135.24	$136.85	+$1.61	48% 286-306 (592)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 84¢	$208.04	$96.52	+$4.58	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
HY hydra1248<$100	Underavg 86.3¢	$93.95	$92.56	-$1.39	75% 187-64 (251)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 14¢	$26.92	$27.88	+$0.96	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 85¢	$8.5	$8.5	+$0	45% 260-317 (577)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 14¢	$3.26	$3.37	+$0.12	35% 440-800 (1240)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 14¢	$3.06	$3.17	+$0.11	42% 995-1363 (2358)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 14¢	$3.01	$3.12	+$0.11	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$1.81	$2.11	+$0.3	32% 99-207 (306)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$262.18

Value

$265.26

PnL

+$3.08

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$135.24

Value

$136.85

PnL

+$1.61

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$208.04

Value

$96.52

PnL

+$4.58

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

hydra1248<$100

Under

Invested

$93.95

Value

$92.56

PnL

-$1.39

Record

75%

187-64 (251)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.92

Value

$27.88

PnL

+$0.96

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$8.5

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

260-317 (577)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.37

PnL

+$0.12

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.06

Value

$3.17

PnL

+$0.11

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.01

Value

$3.12

PnL

+$0.11

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

OddstormCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.81

Value

$2.11

PnL

+$0.3

Record

32%

99-207 (306)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.