Norway vs. Wales: O/U 4.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 74¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14

Over27¢Under73¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$65.04

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 73.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares6,625

Combined PnL+$65.41

Over6 traders

Total Value$255.16

Total Shares895

Combined PnL-$0.37

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 71.9¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$20.72	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
RN1	Underavg 72¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$35.87	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
0xheavy888	Underavg 71.4¢	$459.55	$466.77	+$7.22	54% 496-419 (915)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 29¢	$132.13	$129.85	-$2.28	37% 970-1635 (2605)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 71.6¢	$108.61	$109.93	+$1.31	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$62.61	$63.73	+$1.12	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 72¢	$47.52	$47.85	+$0.33	56% 463-370 (833)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$44.27	$45.06	+$0.79	36% 948-1669 (2617)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 72¢	$20.36	$20.32	-$0.04	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$8	$8.14	+$0.14	37% 960-1662 (2622)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$5.78	$5.69	-$0.1	36% 933-1644 (2577)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$2.74	$2.69	-$0.05	46% 2653-3138 (5791)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,389.57

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$20.72

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,741.26

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$35.87

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$459.55

Value

$466.77

PnL

+$7.22

Record

54%

496-419 (915)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$132.13

Value

$129.85

PnL

-$2.28

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$108.61

Value

$109.93

PnL

+$1.31

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$62.61

Value

$63.73

PnL

+$1.12

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$47.52

Value

$47.85

PnL

+$0.33

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$44.27

Value

$45.06

PnL

+$0.79

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$20.36

Value

$20.32

PnL

-$0.04

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$0.14

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.78

Value

$5.69

PnL

-$0.1

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.74

Value

$2.69

PnL

-$0.05

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.