Norway vs. Wales: O/U 3.5

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (10%) · Under at 53¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 10%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$30.48

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 10 top traders (10%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares7,495

Combined PnL+$37.48

Over9 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,686

Combined PnL-$6.99

Under — 10%Over — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI viper0310	Underavg 52¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$37.48	— 5-2 (7)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$8.98	53% 2055-1798 (3853)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$11.86
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$299.9	$302.79	+$2.88
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 47.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$10.72	49% 3769-3940 (7709)
OD OddstormCTR	Overavg 48¢	$276.84	$282.6	+$5.77	32% 99-206 (305)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 48¢	$240	$237.5	-$2.5	37% 351-601 (952)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 48¢	$240	$237.5	-$2.5	59% 3761-2586 (6347)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 47.9¢	$190.57	$84.59	+$3.07	48% 3192-3494 (6686)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$67	$67.69	+$0.7	55% 447-361 (808)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$50.5	$49.97	-$0.53	61% 1039-654 (1693)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 47.6¢	$12.37	$9.39	+$0.01	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$9.52	$9.23	-$0.29	46% 2546-3015 (5561)

viper0310

Under

Invested

$3,897.53

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$37.48

Record

—

5-2 (7)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,438.91

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$8.98

Record

53%

2055-1798 (3853)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,289.43

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$10.72

Record

49%

3769-3940 (7709)

OddstormCTR

Over

Invested

$276.84

Value

$282.6

PnL

+$5.77

Record

32%

99-206 (305)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$240

Value

$237.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

37%

351-601 (952)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$240

Value

$237.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

59%

3761-2586 (6347)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$190.57

Value

$84.59

PnL

+$3.07

Record

48%

3192-3494 (6686)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$67

Value

$67.69

PnL

+$0.7

Record

55%

447-361 (808)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50.5

Value

$49.97

PnL

-$0.53

Record

61%

1039-654 (1693)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.37

Value

$9.39

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.23

PnL

-$0.29

Record

46%

2546-3015 (5561)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 10 top traders (10%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.