Norway vs. Wales: O/U 2.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 71¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Over71¢Under29¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$10.28

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 70.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over71%

Under30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$708.01

Total Shares1,004

Combined PnL+$16.96

Under6 traders

Total Value$417.16

Total Shares1,436

Combined PnL-$27.24

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 68¢	$586.84	$604.1	+$17.26	61% 1039-654 (1693)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 31.9¢	$293.26	$266.37	-$26.89	49% 3800-3964 (7764)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$92.39	$92.39	-$0	53% 2076-1824 (3900)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 71¢	$65.28	$64.82	-$0.46	46% 2570-3056 (5626)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$36.25	$36.87	+$0.62	48% 3195-3498 (6693)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 70¢	$25.87	$26.23	+$0.37	56% 460-366 (826)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 68¢	$13.06	$12.86	-$0.21	52% 1708-1554 (3262)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$10.49	$10.32	-$0.17	36% 926-1642 (2568)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 30.8¢	$9.47	$8.9	-$0.56	42% 988-1357 (2345)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$2.54	$2.3	-$0.24	48% 2063-2220 (4283)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$586.84

Value

$604.1

PnL

+$17.26

Record

61%

1039-654 (1693)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$293.26

Value

$266.37

PnL

-$26.89

Record

49%

3800-3964 (7764)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$92.39

Value

$92.39

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

2076-1824 (3900)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$65.28

Value

$64.82

PnL

-$0.46

Record

46%

2570-3056 (5626)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$36.25

Value

$36.87

PnL

+$0.62

Record

48%

3195-3498 (6693)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$25.87

Value

$26.23

PnL

+$0.37

Record

56%

460-366 (826)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$13.06

Value

$12.86

PnL

-$0.21

Record

52%

1708-1554 (3262)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.49

Value

$10.32

PnL

-$0.17

Record

36%

926-1642 (2568)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.47

Value

$8.9

PnL

-$0.56

Record

42%

988-1357 (2345)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.54

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.24

Record

48%

2063-2220 (4283)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.