Norway vs. Wales: Norway O/U 2.5

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (91%) · Under at 82¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Over18¢Under82¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 91%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$293.4

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 82¢

+59% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 11 top traders (91%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over18%

Under82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$957.42

Total Shares1,322

Combined PnL+$285.28

Over1 trader

Total Value$18.74

Total Shares54

Combined PnL+$8.12

Under — 91%Over — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 52¢	$496.12	$686.52	+$190.4	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
SL SlickRick123ARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$73.8	$149.14	+$75.34	34% 370-708 (1078)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$56.43	$79.66	+$23.23
└ Over leg	Overavg 7¢	$17.37	$69.48	+$52.11
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Underavg 49.8¢	$70.64	$100.5	+$29.86	37% 977-1669 (2646)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.8¢	$35.4	$51.16	+$15.76
└ Over leg	Overavg 20¢	$35.24	$49.34	+$14.1
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 50.9¢	$56.57	$79.95	+$23.38	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 48¢	$40.73	$61.1	+$20.37	48% 912-1002 (1914)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 50.8¢	$28.45	$40.31	+$11.86	48% 1134-1214 (2348)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 51¢	$51.04	$31.68	+$24.64	45% 814-997 (1811)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 50¢	$11.48	$18.83	+$7.35	37% 985-1642 (2627)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$10.62	$18.74	+$8.12	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 55¢	$12.22	$16	+$3.78	37% 78-132 (210)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 48.8¢	$27.48	$12.24	+$0.51	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 54.5¢	$5.45	$7.2	+$1.75	48% 2109-2267 (4376)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.35	$3.6	+$1.25	36% 950-1657 (2607)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$496.12

Value

$686.52

PnL

+$190.4

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

SlickRick123ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$73.8

Value

$149.14

PnL

+$75.34

Record

34%

370-708 (1078)

Both legs:

Under$56.4351¢+$23.23

Over$17.377¢+$52.11

LightParadoxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$70.64

Value

$100.5

PnL

+$29.86

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

Both legs:

Under$35.449.8¢+$15.76

Over$35.2420¢+$14.1

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$56.57

Value

$79.95

PnL

+$23.38

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$40.73

Value

$61.1

PnL

+$20.37

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$28.45

Value

$40.31

PnL

+$11.86

Record

48%

1134-1214 (2348)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$51.04

Value

$31.68

PnL

+$24.64

Record

45%

814-997 (1811)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$11.48

Value

$18.83

PnL

+$7.35

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.62

Value

$18.74

PnL

+$8.12

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$12.22

Value

$16

PnL

+$3.78

Record

37%

78-132 (210)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$27.48

Value

$12.24

PnL

+$0.51

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$5.45

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$1.75

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$2.35

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$1.25

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 11 top traders (91%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.