Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Norway vs. Wales: Norway O/U 1.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 45¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$885.63

Smart Money Entry

62.6¢ → 45¢

-28% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,948

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,308

Combined PnL-$290.41

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-40 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 78% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 25.3¢	$592.64	$1.2K	+$562.32	48% 912-1002 (1914)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 66.9¢	$1.2K	$923.67	-$312.35	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 33.3¢	$519.73	$859.26	+$339.53	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 28.4¢	$141.47	$274.01	+$132.55	37% 985-1642 (2627)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 42¢	$175.22	$208.6	+$33.38	36% 455-810 (1265)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 31.6¢	$85.73	$149.13	+$63.4	37% 977-1669 (2646)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 33¢	$55.77	$92.95	+$37.18	37% 968-1674 (2642)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 33.9¢	$32.2	$52.25	+$20.05	36% 950-1657 (2607)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 22.3¢	$18.63	$28.22	+$9.6	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 32.6¢	$16.63	$28.05	+$11.42	48% 2109-2267 (4376)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 76.5¢	$28.57	$18.68	-$9.89	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Overavg 76¢	$4.53	$2.98	-$1.55	63% 214-128 (342)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$592.64

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$562.32

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$1,236.02

Value

$923.67

PnL

-$312.35

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$519.73

Value

$859.26

PnL

+$339.53

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$141.47

Value

$274.01

PnL

+$132.55

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$175.22

Value

$208.6

PnL

+$33.38

Record

36%

455-810 (1265)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$85.73

Value

$149.13

PnL

+$63.4

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$55.77

Value

$92.95

PnL

+$37.18

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$32.2

Value

$52.25

PnL

+$20.05

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$18.63

Value

$28.22

PnL

+$9.6

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$16.63

Value

$28.05

PnL

+$11.42

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.57

Value

$18.68

PnL

-$9.89

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.53

Value

$2.98

PnL

-$1.55

Record

63%

214-128 (342)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-40 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 78% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.