Spread: Norway (-3.5)
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Wales (63%) · Wales at 79¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Wales
8
Wales 63%
1 arb excluded
$2.8K
-$173.54
82.8¢ → 78.5¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralWales at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
42h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Wales. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU suntori | Walesavg 82.8¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$129.45 | 46% 2653-3138 (5791) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Norwayavg 15.8¢ | $722.39 | $737.82 | +$15.43 | 53% 2085-1830 (3915) |
| └ Norway leg | Norwayavg 15.8¢ | $487.56 | $494.6 | +$7.05 | |
| └ Wales leg | Walesavg 81.1¢ | $234.83 | $243.22 | +$8.39 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Norwayavg 18.9¢ | $241.88 | $202.21 | -$39.67 | 49% 3821-3983 (7804) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Walesavg 82.6¢ | $45.69 | $45.61 | -$0.07 | 52% 1721-1568 (3289) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Norwayavg 19¢ | $50.37 | $45.07 | -$5.3 | 42% 995-1363 (2358) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Walesavg 78¢ | $7.44 | $7.92 | +$0.48 | 48% 2074-2236 (4310) |
DV dv-pm<$100 | Walesavg 78¢ | $3.9 | $4.15 | +$0.25 | 44% 30-38 (68) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Walesavg 78¢ | $3.55 | $3.77 | +$0.23 | 56% 463-370 (833) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Norwayavg 17¢ | $1.85 | $1.85 | +$0 | 37% 970-1635 (2605) |
Invested
$1,847.6
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$129.45
Record
46%
2653-3138 (5791)
Invested
$722.39
Value
$737.82
PnL
+$15.43
Record
53%
2085-1830 (3915)
Both legs:
Invested
$241.88
Value
$202.21
PnL
-$39.67
Record
49%
3821-3983 (7804)
Invested
$45.69
Value
$45.61
PnL
-$0.07
Record
52%
1721-1568 (3289)
Invested
$50.37
Value
$45.07
PnL
-$5.3
Record
42%
995-1363 (2358)
Invested
$7.44
Value
$7.92
PnL
+$0.48
Record
48%
2074-2236 (4310)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$4.15
PnL
+$0.25
Record
44%
30-38 (68)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$3.77
PnL
+$0.23
Record
56%
463-370 (833)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$1.85
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
970-1635 (2605)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.