Spread: Norway (-2.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wales (22%) · Wales at 64¢ · $678 held · ends Nov 14

Norway36¢Wales64¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wales

Consensus Traders

Wales 22%

Total Value

$677.66

Combined PnL

-$1.72

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 64¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralWales at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wales

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Norway36%

Wales64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wales2 traders

Total Value$516.14

Total Shares814

Combined PnL-$6.14

Norway7 traders

Total Value$161.52

Total Shares442

Combined PnL+$4.42

Wales — 22%Norway — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Wales. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorway 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Norway 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelen	Walesavg 64.9¢	$314.56	$305.12	-$9.44	9% 30-286 (316)
GO GoalLineGhost	Walesavg 63¢	$207.72	$211.02	+$3.3	54% 2027-1761 (3788)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Norwayavg 35¢	$37.45	$39.59	+$2.14	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Norwayavg 37¢	$34.27	$33.37	-$0.9	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Norwayavg 35¢	$31.25	$32.14	+$0.89	48% 269-290 (559)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Norwayavg 35¢	$25.2	$26.64	+$1.44	56% 434-347 (781)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Norwayavg 35.4¢	$20.29	$21.19	+$0.9	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Norwayavg 37¢	$7.1	$6.9	-$0.19	43% 949-1283 (2232)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Norwayavg 34¢	$1.55	$1.68	+$0.14	32% 95-201 (296)

rayvanmechelen

Wales

Invested

$314.56

Value

$305.12

PnL

-$9.44

Record

30-286 (316)

GoalLineGhost

Wales

Invested

$207.72

Value

$211.02

PnL

+$3.3

Record

54%

2027-1761 (3788)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Norway

Invested

$37.45

Value

$39.59

PnL

+$2.14

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Norway

Invested

$34.27

Value

$33.37

PnL

-$0.9

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Norway

Invested

$31.25

Value

$32.14

PnL

+$0.89

Record

48%

269-290 (559)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Norway

Invested

$25.2

Value

$26.64

PnL

+$1.44

Record

56%

434-347 (781)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Norway

Invested

$20.29

Value

$21.19

PnL

+$0.9

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

sentrioCTR<$100

Norway

Invested

$7.1

Value

$6.9

PnL

-$0.19

Record

43%

949-1283 (2232)

OddstormCTR<$100

Norway

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.68

PnL

+$0.14

Record

32%

95-201 (296)

Research grade

NeutralWales at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wales

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Wales. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorway 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Norway 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wales wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.