Spread: Norway (-1.5)

1 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Norway (8%) · Norway at 57¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 14

Norway57¢Wales43¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Norway

Consensus Traders

Norway 8%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.1K

Combined PnL

-$129.39

Research grade

NeutralNorway at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Norway

1 of 12 top traders (8%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Norway57%

Wales43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Norway1 trader

Total Value$14.0K

Total Shares24,430

Combined PnL-$952.53

Wales11 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares23,070

Combined PnL+$823.15

Norway — 8%Wales — 92%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-75 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

8% of non-arb traders are on Norway. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNorway 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWales 100% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Wales 92% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ET Ethanael02	Norwayavg 61.4¢	$15.0K	$14.0K	-$952.53	67% 108-53 (161)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Walesavg 38¢	$3.9K	$4.3K	+$456.83	59% 493-339 (832)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Walesavg 41¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$70.92	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Walesavg 38.7¢	$764.49	$839.8	+$75.31	48% 269-290 (559)
FO forecastication4CTR	Walesavg 38¢	$706.92	$790.64	+$83.71	32% 150-313 (463)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Walesavg 40¢	$662.42	$697.3	+$34.88	54% 2027-1761 (3788)
BI biying99999CTR	Walesavg 39¢	$432.9	$471.75	+$38.85	34% 95-187 (282)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Walesavg 38¢	$380	$425	+$45	47% 34-39 (73)
SE sentrioCTR	Walesavg 41¢	$153.29	$159	+$5.71	43% 933-1261 (2194)
38 38791873984189CTR	Walesavg 39.4¢	$265.19	$131.65	+$11.46	48% 2982-3276 (6258)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Walesavg 40.3¢	$126.45	$130.72	+$4.26	56% 434-347 (781)
└ Wales leg	Walesavg 40.3¢	$94.59	$99.67	+$5.07
└ Norway leg	Norwayavg 59¢	$31.86	$31.05	-$0.81
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Walesavg 41¢	$34.5	$34.5	-$0	36% 925-1612 (2537)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Walesavg 40.6¢	$34.76	$30.22	+$0.47	53% 1598-1443 (3041)

Ethanael02

Norway

Invested

$15,000

Value

$14.0K

PnL

-$952.53

Record

67%

108-53 (161)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Wales

Invested

$3,857.65

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$456.83

Record

59%

493-339 (832)

FlaznorpCTR

Wales

Invested

$1,930.76

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$70.92

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Wales

Invested

$764.49

Value

$839.8

PnL

+$75.31

Record

48%

269-290 (559)

forecastication4CTR

Wales

Invested

$706.92

Value

$790.64

PnL

+$83.71

Record

32%

150-313 (463)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Wales

Invested

$662.42

Value

$697.3

PnL

+$34.88

Record

54%

2027-1761 (3788)

biying99999CTR

Wales

Invested

$432.9

Value

$471.75

PnL

+$38.85

Record

34%

95-187 (282)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Wales

Invested

$380

Value

$425

PnL

+$45

Record

47%

34-39 (73)

sentrioCTR

Wales

Invested

$153.29

Value

$159

PnL

+$5.71

Record

43%

933-1261 (2194)

38791873984189CTR

Wales

Invested

$265.19

Value

$131.65

PnL

+$11.46

Record

48%

2982-3276 (6258)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Wales

Invested

$126.45

Value

$130.72

PnL

+$4.26

Record

56%

434-347 (781)

Both legs:

Wales$94.5940.3¢+$5.07

Norway$31.8659¢-$0.81

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Wales

Invested

$34.5

Value

$34.5

PnL

-$0

Record

36%

925-1612 (2537)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Wales

Invested

$34.76

Value

$30.22

PnL

+$0.47

Record

53%

1598-1443 (3041)

Research grade

NeutralNorway at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Norway

1 of 12 top traders (8%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-75 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

8% of non-arb traders are on Norway. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNorway 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWales 100% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Wales 92% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Norway wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.