Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (80%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Norway win on 2026-11-14?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 21¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
No
9
No 56%
$2.3K
$31.23
20.1¢ → 20.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 80%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
49h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TY Tys0n8686CTR | Noavg 20¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$36.15 | — 11-7 (18) |
FO Forecastication2 | Yesavg 80¢ | $354.4 | $352.19 | -$2.21 | 45% 224-276 (500) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 79¢ | $154.03 | $155.01 | +$0.97 | 62% 1024-638 (1662) |
GA GamblingOdyssey | Yesavg 80¢ | $109.6 | $109.6 | +$0 | 38% 13-21 (34) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 20.7¢ | $104.01 | $101.35 | -$2.66 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $26.65 | $26.65 | +$0 | 32% 92-195 (287) |
 leflaiveCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $21 | $20 | -$1 | 47% 14-16 (30) |
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Yesavg 80¢ | $11.54 | $11.47 | -$0.07 | 62% 187-114 (301) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 19.8¢ | $5.45 | $5.5 | +$0.05 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
Invested
$1,446.09
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$36.15
Record
—
11-7 (18)
Invested
$354.4
Value
$352.19
PnL
-$2.21
Record
45%
224-276 (500)
Invested
$154.03
Value
$155.01
PnL
+$0.97
Record
62%
1024-638 (1662)
Invested
$109.6
Value
$109.6
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
13-21 (34)
Invested
$104.01
Value
$101.35
PnL
-$2.66
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Invested
$26.65
Value
$26.65
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
92-195 (287)
leflaiveCTR<$100Invested
$21
Value
$20
PnL
-$1
Record
47%
14-16 (30)
Invested
$11.54
Value
$11.47
PnL
-$0.07
Record
62%
187-114 (301)
Invested
$5.45
Value
$5.5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.