Norway leading at halftime?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 90¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 14

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 90¢

+72% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares9,392

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$18.57

Total Shares161

Combined PnL-$53.17

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 51.9¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$434.61	49% 3844-4007 (7851)
RN1	Noavg 56.5¢	$1.6K	$2.5K	+$897.03	55% 5370-4319 (9689)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 52.4¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$348.7	53% 2094-1845 (3939)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 48.4¢	$461.38	$767.97	+$306.59	37% 964-1664 (2628)
NM NM-P	Noavg 40¢	$170	$170	+$0	59% 3767-2593 (6360)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 40¢	$79.34	$79.34	+$0	37% 357-610 (967)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$208.97	$71.51	-$40.24	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.4¢	$34.39	$36.09	+$13.59
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57¢	$87.78	$35.42	-$53.83
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 44.2¢	$68.85	$15.58	-$53.27	46% 2679-3158 (5837)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 73¢	$12.43	$15.32	+$2.89	36% 937-1647 (2584)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 40¢	$12.62	$12.62	+$0	52% 1734-1576 (3310)
NO NotJump<$100	Noavg 61¢	$12.2	$12.3	+$0.1	52% 828-769 (1597)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 52.5¢	$8.88	$11.49	+$2.61	37% 1030-1738 (2768)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.03	-$0.02	37% 972-1637 (2609)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$2.89	$2.99	+$0.1	55% 469-381 (850)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,106

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$434.61

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

RN1

Invested

$1,562.26

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$897.03

Record

55%

5370-4319 (9689)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,437.58

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$348.7

Record

53%

2094-1845 (3939)

LightParadox

Invested

$461.38

Value

$767.97

PnL

+$306.59

Record

37%

964-1664 (2628)

NM-P

Invested

$170

Value

$170

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3767-2593 (6360)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$79.34

Value

$79.34

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

357-610 (967)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$208.97

Value

$71.51

PnL

-$40.24

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

Both legs:

Invested

$68.85

Value

$15.58

PnL

-$53.27

Record

46%

2679-3158 (5837)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$12.43

Value

$15.32

PnL

+$2.89

Record

36%

937-1647 (2584)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$12.62

Value

$12.62

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

1734-1576 (3310)

NotJump<$100

Invested

$12.2

Value

$12.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

828-769 (1597)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$8.88

Value

$11.49

PnL

+$2.61

Record

37%

1030-1738 (2768)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.03

PnL

-$0.02

Record

37%

972-1637 (2609)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.89

Value

$2.99

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

469-381 (850)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.