Norway vs. Wales: Draw at halftime?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$126.76

Smart Money Entry

81.7¢ → 100¢

+22% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,804

Combined PnL+$329.02

No6 traders

Total Value$1.01

Total Shares2,013

Combined PnL-$455.79

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 81.1¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$318.64	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 94¢	$94	$99.95	+$5.95	37% 977-1669 (2646)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$8.25	$12.69	+$4.44	37% 985-1642 (2627)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 27¢	$367.69	$0.68	-$367.01	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 20.6¢	$114.33	$0.22	-$78.72	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$5.77	$0.06	-$5.72	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$2.29	$0.02	-$2.27	47% 973-1108 (2081)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$1.55	$0.02	-$1.53	44% 661-825 (1486)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$0.55	$0.01	-$0.54	45% 814-997 (1811)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,372.05

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$318.64

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$94

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$5.95

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.25

Value

$12.69

PnL

+$4.44

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$367.69

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$367.01

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$114.33

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$78.72

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$5.77

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.72

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$2.29

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.27

Record

47%

973-1108 (2081)

smithagentCTR<$100

Invested

$1.55

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.53

Record

44%

661-825 (1486)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.54

Record

45%

814-997 (1811)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.