Wales leading at halftime?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$103.93

Smart Money Entry

92.5¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,194

Combined PnL-$39.98

Yes5 traders

Total Value$221.6

Total Shares2,514

Combined PnL-$63.95

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 90.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$55.49	49% 3844-4007 (7851)
RN1	Noavg 94¢	$940.73	$953.12	+$12.38	55% 5370-4319 (9689)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Yesavg 10¢	$191.5	$162.78	-$28.72	48% 288-310 (598)
LI Limousin	Noavg 98¢	$102.9	$104.95	+$2.05	36% 937-1647 (2584)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$46.84	$45.72	-$1.12	53% 2094-1845 (3939)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$35.72	$36.14	+$0.42	36% 953-1669 (2622)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$9.11	$7.04	-$2.07	42% 1002-1373 (2375)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.2¢	$37.67	$5.07	-$32.6	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 93¢	$4.65	$4.63	-$0.03	37% 972-1637 (2609)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.43	-$0.03	37% 964-1664 (2628)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 71¢	$2.45	$3.16	+$0.71	37% 1030-1738 (2768)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.43	$0.99	+$0.56	53% 7092-6207 (13299)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,132.64

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$55.49

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

RN1

Invested

$940.73

Value

$953.12

PnL

+$12.38

Record

55%

5370-4319 (9689)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Yes

Invested

$191.5

Value

$162.78

PnL

-$28.72

Record

48%

288-310 (598)

Limousin

Invested

$102.9

Value

$104.95

PnL

+$2.05

Record

36%

937-1647 (2584)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.84

Value

$45.72

PnL

-$1.12

Record

53%

2094-1845 (3939)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$35.72

Value

$36.14

PnL

+$0.42

Record

36%

953-1669 (2622)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.11

Value

$7.04

PnL

-$2.07

Record

42%

1002-1373 (2375)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.67

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$32.6

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.63

PnL

-$0.03

Record

37%

972-1637 (2609)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$0.03

Record

37%

964-1664 (2628)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

$3.16

PnL

+$0.71

Record

37%

1030-1738 (2768)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.99

PnL

+$0.56

Record

53%

7092-6207 (13299)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.