Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Wales?
9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 75%
$1.3K
$7.69
95.7¢ → 99.6¢
+4% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+23 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.1¢ | $660.84 | $673.22 | +$12.38 | 48% 912-1002 (1914) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 95.8¢ | $164.27 | $167.93 | +$3.65 | 59% 3772-2596 (6368) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 94.7¢ | $121.03 | $107.32 | -$13.71 | 49% 3867-4029 (7896) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 95.8¢ | $100.5 | $102.7 | +$2.2 | 37% 364-613 (977) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $94.89 | $96.97 | +$2.08 | 36% 455-810 (1265) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $53.95 | $55.08 | +$1.13 | 37% 977-1669 (2646) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $20.07 | $34.13 | +$14.05 | 55% 5380-4339 (9719) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $60.45 | $13.98 | -$2.28 | 48% 3231-3545 (6776) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $13.33 | $13.03 | -$0.31 | 53% 1809-1607 (3416) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 43.3¢ | $2.25 | $5.09 | +$2.84 | 37% 1039-1757 (2796) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $15.26 | $1.47 | -$13.79 | 46% 2702-3200 (5902) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $1.24 | $0.68 | -$0.55 | 48% 2109-2267 (4376) |
Invested
$660.84
Value
$673.22
PnL
+$12.38
Record
48%
912-1002 (1914)
Invested
$164.27
Value
$167.93
PnL
+$3.65
Record
59%
3772-2596 (6368)
Invested
$121.03
Value
$107.32
PnL
-$13.71
Record
49%
3867-4029 (7896)
Invested
$100.5
Value
$102.7
PnL
+$2.2
Record
37%
364-613 (977)
Invested
$94.89
Value
$96.97
PnL
+$2.08
Record
36%
455-810 (1265)
Invested
$53.95
Value
$55.08
PnL
+$1.13
Record
37%
977-1669 (2646)
RN1<$100Invested
$20.07
Value
$34.13
PnL
+$14.05
Record
55%
5380-4339 (9719)
Invested
$60.45
Value
$13.98
PnL
-$2.28
Record
48%
3231-3545 (6776)
Invested
$13.33
Value
$13.03
PnL
-$0.31
Record
53%
1809-1607 (3416)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$5.09
PnL
+$2.84
Record
37%
1039-1757 (2796)
Invested
$15.26
Value
$1.47
PnL
-$13.79
Record
46%
2702-3200 (5902)
Invested
$1.24
Value
$0.68
PnL
-$0.55
Record
48%
2109-2267 (4376)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.