Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Wales?
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 73%
$1.6K
$115.18
91¢ → 97¢
+7% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-P | Noavg 91¢ | $453.75 | $483.67 | +$29.92 | 37% 364-613 (977) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 91.5¢ | $330.59 | $350.45 | +$19.86 | 48% 912-1002 (1914) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 91¢ | $320.52 | $340.26 | +$19.74 | 59% 3772-2596 (6368) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 90¢ | $135 | $145.5 | +$10.5 | 53% 1376-1196 (2572) |
FO forecastication4 | Noavg 91¢ | $110.11 | $117.37 | +$7.26 | 33% 168-336 (504) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $80 | +$52.97 | 23% 25-85 (110) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $42.06 | $44.17 | +$2.11 | 49% 3867-4029 (7896) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $36.33 | $38.72 | +$2.4 | 53% 1809-1607 (3416) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $62.12 | $22.71 | +$4.78 | 48% 3231-3545 (6776) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $52.08 | $17.48 | -$34.6 | 46% 2702-3200 (5902) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $4.6 | $4.85 | +$0.25 | 37% 977-1669 (2646) |
Invested
$453.75
Value
$483.67
PnL
+$29.92
Record
37%
364-613 (977)
Invested
$330.59
Value
$350.45
PnL
+$19.86
Record
48%
912-1002 (1914)
Invested
$320.52
Value
$340.26
PnL
+$19.74
Record
59%
3772-2596 (6368)
VeryLucky888Invested
$135
Value
$145.5
PnL
+$10.5
Record
53%
1376-1196 (2572)
Invested
$110.11
Value
$117.37
PnL
+$7.26
Record
33%
168-336 (504)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$80
PnL
+$52.97
Record
23%
25-85 (110)
Invested
$42.06
Value
$44.17
PnL
+$2.11
Record
49%
3867-4029 (7896)
Invested
$36.33
Value
$38.72
PnL
+$2.4
Record
53%
1809-1607 (3416)
Invested
$62.12
Value
$22.71
PnL
+$4.78
Record
48%
3231-3545 (6776)
Invested
$52.08
Value
$17.48
PnL
-$34.6
Record
46%
2702-3200 (5902)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$4.85
PnL
+$0.25
Record
37%
977-1669 (2646)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.