Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Wales?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$88.39
90¢ → 92¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-1 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $415.48 | $392.16 | -$23.32 | 49% 3867-4029 (7896) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 9¢ | $244.13 | $217.01 | -$27.13 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 90¢ | $171.35 | $175.16 | +$3.81 | |
GC GC-P | Noavg 90¢ | $317.32 | $324.06 | +$6.74 | 37% 364-613 (977) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 90¢ | $315 | $322 | +$7 | 59% 3772-2596 (6368) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $80 | +$52.97 | 23% 25-85 (110) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $60.4 | $54.58 | -$5.82 | 55% 5380-4339 (9719) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $52.46 | $53.51 | +$1.05 | 53% 1809-1607 (3416) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $28.13 | $51.98 | +$27.5 | 48% 3231-3545 (6776) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $25.65 | $26.22 | +$0.57 | 48% 912-1002 (1914) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $9.1 | $9 | -$0.1 | 45% 261-317 (578) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $7.6 | $6.08 | -$1.52 | 46% 2702-3200 (5902) |
Invested
$415.48
Value
$392.16
PnL
-$23.32
Record
49%
3867-4029 (7896)
Both legs:
Invested
$317.32
Value
$324.06
PnL
+$6.74
Record
37%
364-613 (977)
Invested
$315
Value
$322
PnL
+$7
Record
59%
3772-2596 (6368)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$80
PnL
+$52.97
Record
23%
25-85 (110)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$60.4
Value
$54.58
PnL
-$5.82
Record
55%
5380-4339 (9719)
Invested
$52.46
Value
$53.51
PnL
+$1.05
Record
53%
1809-1607 (3416)
Invested
$28.13
Value
$51.98
PnL
+$27.5
Record
48%
3231-3545 (6776)
Invested
$25.65
Value
$26.22
PnL
+$0.57
Record
48%
912-1002 (1914)
Invested
$9.1
Value
$9
PnL
-$0.1
Record
45%
261-317 (578)
Invested
$7.6
Value
$6.08
PnL
-$1.52
Record
46%
2702-3200 (5902)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.