Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Wales?
9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $676 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 75%
$676.12
$8.82
96.1¢ → 98.7¢
+3% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 43%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95.6¢ | $127.8 | $129.75 | +$1.95 | 48% 912-1002 (1914) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 96.1¢ | $114.78 | $115.97 | +$1.19 | 37% 985-1642 (2627) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 95.9¢ | $99.11 | $100.1 | +$0.99 | 49% 3867-4029 (7896) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $93.53 | $93.81 | +$0.28 | 37% 364-613 (977) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $62.54 | $63.13 | +$0.59 | 37% 968-1674 (2642) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $49 | $48.55 | -$0.45 | 36% 455-810 (1265) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $43.2 | $43.7 | +$0.49 | 37% 977-1669 (2646) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $28.03 | +$2.31 | 23% 25-85 (110) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $118.29 | $26.13 | +$1.34 | 48% 3231-3545 (6776) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $17.02 | $17.09 | +$0.07 | 36% 950-1657 (2607) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $9.62 | $9.71 | +$0.09 | 45% 261-317 (578) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $0.18 | $0.15 | -$0.03 | 59% 3772-2596 (6368) |
Invested
$127.8
Value
$129.75
PnL
+$1.95
Record
48%
912-1002 (1914)
Invested
$114.78
Value
$115.97
PnL
+$1.19
Record
37%
985-1642 (2627)
Invested
$99.11
Value
$100.1
PnL
+$0.99
Record
49%
3867-4029 (7896)
Invested
$93.53
Value
$93.81
PnL
+$0.28
Record
37%
364-613 (977)
Invested
$62.54
Value
$63.13
PnL
+$0.59
Record
37%
968-1674 (2642)
Invested
$49
Value
$48.55
PnL
-$0.45
Record
36%
455-810 (1265)
Invested
$43.2
Value
$43.7
PnL
+$0.49
Record
37%
977-1669 (2646)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$28.03
PnL
+$2.31
Record
23%
25-85 (110)
Invested
$118.29
Value
$26.13
PnL
+$1.34
Record
48%
3231-3545 (6776)
Invested
$17.02
Value
$17.09
PnL
+$0.07
Record
36%
950-1657 (2607)
Invested
$9.62
Value
$9.71
PnL
+$0.09
Record
45%
261-317 (578)
Invested
$0.18
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$0.03
Record
59%
3772-2596 (6368)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.