Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Wales?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 89¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 64%
$2.1K
$90.01
89.1¢ → 89¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 89¢ | $827.15 | $831.8 | +$4.65 | 53% 1351-1180 (2531) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 89¢ | $477.87 | $482.27 | +$4.4 | 37% 353-603 (956) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 89¢ | $311.5 | $313.25 | +$1.75 | 59% 3763-2587 (6350) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $128.08 | $134.49 | +$6.4 | 49% 3821-3983 (7804) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $129.17 | $100.19 | +$20.6 | 48% 3214-3513 (6727) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $93.64 | $93.12 | -$0.52 | 36% 933-1644 (2577) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $80 | +$52.97 | 23% 25-85 (110) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $56.4 | $56.4 | +$0 | 52% 1721-1568 (3289) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $26.87 | $26.57 | -$0.3 | 37% 970-1635 (2605) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.4¢ | $4.84 | $4.9 | +$0.06 | 46% 2653-3138 (5791) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 | 48% 2074-2236 (4310) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$827.15
Value
$831.8
PnL
+$4.65
Record
53%
1351-1180 (2531)
Invested
$477.87
Value
$482.27
PnL
+$4.4
Record
37%
353-603 (956)
Invested
$311.5
Value
$313.25
PnL
+$1.75
Record
59%
3763-2587 (6350)
Invested
$128.08
Value
$134.49
PnL
+$6.4
Record
49%
3821-3983 (7804)
Invested
$129.17
Value
$100.19
PnL
+$20.6
Record
48%
3214-3513 (6727)
Invested
$93.64
Value
$93.12
PnL
-$0.52
Record
36%
933-1644 (2577)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$80
PnL
+$52.97
Record
23%
25-85 (110)
Invested
$56.4
Value
$56.4
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
1721-1568 (3289)
Invested
$26.87
Value
$26.57
PnL
-$0.3
Record
37%
970-1635 (2605)
Invested
$4.84
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.06
Record
46%
2653-3138 (5791)
Invested
$1
Value
$1
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2074-2236 (4310)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.