Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Wales?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 84¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$5.4K
$131.08
87.5¢ → 83.5¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 86.9¢ | $3.3K | $3.2K | -$130.07 | 49% 3867-4029 (7896) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 89¢ | $721.31 | $676.73 | -$44.58 | 37% 364-613 (977) |
GG ggA11xcrCTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $477.8 | $606.44 | +$128.64 | 20% 4-16 (20) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 89¢ | $622.98 | $584.48 | -$38.5 | 59% 3772-2596 (6368) |
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $190 | +$162.97 | 23% 25-85 (110) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 89¢ | $161.25 | $112.29 | -$7.2 | 53% 1809-1607 (3416) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.6¢ | $16.18 | $21.26 | +$5.08 | 46% 2702-3200 (5902) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 83.5¢ | $304.9 | $9.76 | +$53.94 | 48% 3231-3545 (6776) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.9¢ | $2.82 | $3.62 | +$0.79 | 55% 5380-4339 (9719) |
Invested
$3,293.94
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$130.07
Record
49%
3867-4029 (7896)
Invested
$721.31
Value
$676.73
PnL
-$44.58
Record
37%
364-613 (977)
Invested
$477.8
Value
$606.44
PnL
+$128.64
Record
20%
4-16 (20)
Invested
$622.98
Value
$584.48
PnL
-$38.5
Record
59%
3772-2596 (6368)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$190
PnL
+$162.97
Record
23%
25-85 (110)
Invested
$161.25
Value
$112.29
PnL
-$7.2
Record
53%
1809-1607 (3416)
Invested
$16.18
Value
$21.26
PnL
+$5.08
Record
46%
2702-3200 (5902)
Invested
$304.9
Value
$9.76
PnL
+$53.94
Record
48%
3231-3545 (6776)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$2.82
Value
$3.62
PnL
+$0.79
Record
55%
5380-4339 (9719)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.