Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Wales?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$775.64

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 97.8¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,780

Combined PnL+$970.49

No5 traders

Total Value$167.12

Total Shares373

Combined PnL-$194.85

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$751.24	$753.58	+$2.34	37% 364-613 (977)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 2.6¢	$19.76	$431.05	+$411.28
└ No leg	Noavg 97.1¢	$731.47	$322.53	-$408.94
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$673.23	$675	+$1.77	59% 3772-2596 (6368)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 2.7¢	$17.98	$386.1	+$368.12
└ No leg	Noavg 97.1¢	$655.25	$288.9	-$366.35
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$499.33	+$475.74	23% 25-85 (110)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$12.73	$268.84	+$256.11	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$195.2	$224.59	+$212.22	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
RN1	Noavg 96.8¢	$174.47	$77.15	-$97.31	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$64.11	$33.35	-$25.76	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.42	$27.84	+$26.42	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 97¢	$61.43	$27.11	-$34.33	48% 912-1002 (1914)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$33.48	$14.76	-$18.72	37% 977-1669 (2646)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$33.48	$14.76	-$18.72	36% 950-1657 (2607)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$751.24

Value

$753.58

PnL

+$2.34

Record

37%

364-613 (977)

Both legs:

Yes$19.762.6¢+$411.28

No$731.4797.1¢-$408.94

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$673.23

Value

$675

PnL

+$1.77

Record

59%

3772-2596 (6368)

Both legs:

Yes$17.982.7¢+$368.12

No$655.2597.1¢-$366.35

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$499.33

PnL

+$475.74

Record

23%

25-85 (110)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$12.73

Value

$268.84

PnL

+$256.11

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$195.2

Value

$224.59

PnL

+$212.22

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

RN1

Invested

$174.47

Value

$77.15

PnL

-$97.31

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$64.11

Value

$33.35

PnL

-$25.76

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.42

Value

$27.84

PnL

+$26.42

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$61.43

Value

$27.11

PnL

-$34.33

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$33.48

Value

$14.76

PnL

-$18.72

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$33.48

Value

$14.76

PnL

-$18.72

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.