Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Wales?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 78¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes23¢No77¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$268.14

Smart Money Entry

91.9¢ → 77.5¢

-16% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$285.27

Total Shares1,337

Combined PnL+$297.04

No3 traders

Total Value$196.48

Total Shares245

Combined PnL-$28.89

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 77.1¢	$456.45	$747.02	+$290.56	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 8.2¢	$182.06	$465.77	+$283.71
└ No leg	Noavg 77.1¢	$274.39	$281.24	+$6.85
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$210	+$182.97	23% 25-85 (110)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 92¢	$103.04	$88.48	-$14.56	48% 912-1002 (1914)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 92¢	$92	$81	-$11	36% 950-1657 (2607)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$197.21	$57.56	+$104.03	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 91¢	$30.33	$27	-$3.33	48% 293-321 (614)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$4.01	$12.03	+$8.02	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1.5	$3.15	+$1.65	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$2.17	$2.53	+$0.36	55% 5380-4339 (9719)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$456.45

Value

$747.02

PnL

+$290.56

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

Both legs:

Yes$182.068.2¢+$283.71

No$274.3977.1¢+$6.85

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$210

PnL

+$182.97

Record

23%

25-85 (110)

SnakeBall

Invested

$103.04

Value

$88.48

PnL

-$14.56

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$92

Value

$81

PnL

-$11

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$197.21

Value

$57.56

PnL

+$104.03

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$30.33

Value

$27

PnL

-$3.33

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.01

Value

$12.03

PnL

+$8.02

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$1.65

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.17

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.36

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.